Stick a Fork in 'Em!!

Well folks, let me be the first to announce that - Mr. Kerry is done. I know you're thinking it ain't over but it is. Now wait a minute - hear me out. As an initial matter, it would be wise to briefly recap the overall state of the race. Bush entered the debate season with a sizable, outside the margin of error, lead. There was the possibility of a knockout in the first debate, with Bush having the potential to run away with an easy win. Now, after the debates, which were seen by gazillions of people, the things we remember are a) Kerry outing Cheney's daughter in despicable and much criticized way - this coming from a guy who still hasn't solidified the women vote, a necessity for any dem, and who has a major likeability problem (not to mention the obvious problem of not understanding ordinary Americans, who are pretty tolerant but still don't want to extend the institution of marriage to gays - Kerry thinks that they are just plain bigots, and if they know that Cheney has a gay daughter they just won't vote because both parties are the same); b) Kerry's "global test"; and c) Bush being hunched over and smirking a few weeks ago.

Now, early signs are indicating not just a halt to Kerry's momentum, but in fact a reversal of momentum (in my opinion, Bush bottomed out and was still ahead, and now the race will settle back into its normal state of the universe - a 3-7 pt Bush lead).

So, how could things possibly be substantially different than they were before the debates (with a 5-8 pt lead for Dubya)? They can't, and they're not.

Bush's stock in the Iowa markets and Tradesports has been on the rise all day, with Bush back in the 60 cent range. Why? Because three weeks before the election, the challenger should not have to convince the public that he wouldn't allow a foreign veto over our national security (which Kerry did more than once during the last debate) during a time of war, he shouldn't have to play defense for committing the lowest political trick I've ever seen at this level, and his veep shouldn't have to stump in New Jersey! (Kerry's recent schedule was as follows: Nevada, Arizona (for the debate), New Mexico, Missouri (for the debate), Iowa, New Hampshire, and Iowa again. Edwards recent schedule was: Oregon, Iowa, California (for the "Tonight Show") and New Jersey. -- The only red states are Nevada and New Hampshire, neither of which is enough to put Kerry over the top.)

Let's look at todays polls gents:
Nationwide polls:
1) Bush is up 4 in Zogby, his biggest lead all year in this poll from a pollster that has taken a clearly partisan (Kerry) stance ("This race is Kerry's to lose" in August).
2)Bush is up 3.5 in Rasmussen, which was 1.4 two days ago.
3) Bush is 4 head-to-head in TIPP, 3 with Nader.
4) Race is Tied in Wash Post, but this includes Tuesday's results, which resulted in a 4-pt overnight swing in Kerry's direction - in tomorrow's poll, these results won't be counted - so expect at least a 2-4 pt Bush lead tomorrow.
State polls:
1) Bush is TIED in New Jersey!!
2) Bush is up 2 in Ohio (yesterday's poll), reversing a trend of a few straight polls giving Kerry a 1 pt lead. Don't forget the gay marriage amendment is on the Ohio ballot.
3) Bush is up by 3 and 4 in the latest Florida polls, the one where he's up by 3 was mostly taken before Kerry's outrageous comment, in the other one, 1/3 was taken before the debate/comment.
4) BUSH IS UP 5(!) IN OREGON!! (Blue state with 7 EV's)
5) Bush is only down 2 in Minnesota (blue state with 10 EV's) and gaining.

Now, just from the evidence presented, along with the fact that there will now be 17 more straight days of stumping, where Bush has been beating Kerry all year (i.e., no more "chances" for Kerry), one would have to be very pleased. But the best part is still to come! Unfortunately, I have to leave now but my next post will explain the following information (which I'm cutting and pasting from an email I sent earlier to VLWC):

Bush's base is stronger than kerry's - i have yet to see a poll where the percentage of republicans that are "definitely" voting for Bush does not exceed, outside the margin of error, the percentage of democrates that are "definitely" voting for kerry. further, i point you to the polls in 2002, which were weighted using the 2000 numbers - as are the current polls. 9/11 and the war on terror, which has tilted the country to the right, plus karl rove's extensive republican voter turnout campaign (which had been traditionally dwarfed by the dems) that has been going on for 4 yrs explains why everybody was "shocked" with the republican mid-term vicories. here are the results of the most nationally observed senate races of 2002:

Minnesota
In Minnesota, Zogby had Walter Mondale over Coleman by 6 points. The Minneapolis Star had Coleman down 5 in its last poll.
Final: Coleman 50, Mondale 47. Coleman by 3.

Colorado
In Colorado, Zogby had Strickland over Allard by 5 points, but at the end of October he had Strickland by 9. The Rocky Mountain News had Strickland by 4. The Denver Post had Strickland by 1.
Final Allard 51, Strickland 46. Allard by 5.

New Hampshire
In New Hampshire, the Concord Monitor had Democrat Shaheen over Republican Sununu by one, FPC/WNDS-TV had Shaheen by 5, University of New Hampshire had Shaheen by 4, then had Sununu by 1.
Final: Sununu 51, Shaheen 47. Sununu by 4.

Texas
In the Texas Senate race (not that Texas is a swing state) Zogby's final poll had Republican Cornyn over Democrat Kirk by 4 points, and a day earlier had Cornyn up one. The Dallas Morning News had Cornyn up 9, Survey USA had Cornyn up 8.
Final result: Cornyn 55, Kirk 43. Cornyn by 12.

Georgia
In the Georgia Senate race the final four polls were Zogby showing Democrat Cleland up by 2, Zogby showing a tie, Atlanta Journal-Constitution showing Cleland up 3, and Mason-Dixon showing Cleland up 6.
Final result: Not even close. Republican Chambliss 53, Democrat Cleland 46, Chambliss by 7.

North Carolina
In the North Carolina Senate race the final five polls were Zogby showing Republican Dole up by 10; Zogby showing Dole up 6, Carolina Poll showing Dole up 7, Survey USA showing Dole up 4, and Mason-Dixon showing Dole up 6.
Final result: Dole 54, Bowles 45. Dole by 9. Only Zogby's last-second "correction" poll was close.

Iowa
In Iowa, the Des Moines Register had Democrat Harkin with a moderate 9-point lead, but SurveyUSA had Harkin beating Republican Ganske by an overwhelming 22 points.
Final result: Harkin 54, Ganske 44. Harkin by 10.

There are few exceptions to this rule. In Missouri, the late polls had Talent up by 8, and up by 4. He won 50 percent to 49 percent.