Stay Tuned...

Guindibloggers - sorry for the lack of blogging this weekend. My wife and I moved to our new apartment over the weekend which made blogging impossible. I just wanted you all to know that I will be putting up a new post later today. You will not want to miss this post.

Today's post will analyze the latest poll results as well as the flash polls immediately after the debate. Hopefully by then, the Gallup poll will have released its internals but in any event, I will explain how these polls - even the Newsweek poll (now termed "NewsWeak" by some polling experts because of its highly volatile sample of voters) - tend to show a bounce for Kerry of about 1-2 points. The Dem Corps analysis (Carville's and Shrum's company), the LA Times poll (which was taken solely to show the effect of the debate, and does not claim to accurately reflect the electorate), Rasmussen's daily tracking poll and the markets (tradesports and the iowa markets) all show a bounce of 1-2 points. The Gallup poll has been as volatile as the Newsweek poll, and thus my hunch is its results can be explained by an unweighted voting sample.

The net effect of the debate was for Kerry to stop the bleeding of a campaign with a fatal injury. As the spin begins to wear off and the term "global test" becomes part of the vocabulary, expect the race to settle into its natural state of the universe, which is a Bush lead of about 3-7 points.

Until then, enjoy this pic: