Bush's Position Going Into Tonight's Final Debate

Alright folks, we're headed into the home stretch. Tonight's debate has become more important than originally thought. The President is retaining a slight lead in the most recent national polls, and still has the structural advantage in the electoral college. If Bush retains all the states that he won in 2000, he will, due to the electoral adjustments of 2002, win 278 votes (a net gain of 8). The biggest two question marks throughout the campaign have been Florida and Ohio, but the evidence has begun to mount that he has, in fact, solidified Florida. Also, it appears that Bush has a comfortable lead in Wisconsin, a Blue state with 10 electoral votes.

Although Bush built a formidable lead in Ohio before the first debate, recent polls show a statistical dead heat. I feel confident that he will win Ohio though, for a couple of reasons. First, there is a referendum on the ballot in Ohio that prohibits gay marriage. This issue plays significantly in Bush's favor, and the referendum will most likely produce a large turnout of conservative voters. If we look at Missouri as an example, there was a large turnout with 71% voting for an amendment prohibiting gay marriage. Second, the Bush campaign is beginning an all-out blitz on Ohio immediately following tonight's debate.

If Kerry does not win Ohio, he cannot win the election. However, even if Bush loses Ohio, he still has a decent chance to win the election. If he swaps Wisconsin for Ohio, his total stands at 268 EV. A 269-269 tie results in a tie-breaking vote in the House, which will result in a Bush win. He will likely pick up this additional vote by taking Maine's second congressional district (Maine's votes are split) - where Bush is slightly ahead, Iowa (7 EV's - race is tied) or New Mexico (5 EV's - race is tied).

If Bush also loses New Hampshire (a red state - 4 EV's - race is tied), he can still win the election. Dropping Ohio and New Hampshire but picking up Wisconsin is a net loss of 14 EV's. This would leave Bush at 264. He can either take New Mexico or Iowa (or even Minnesota or Oregon - but if he wins these states, he probably would've won NM or IA already).

In the worst case scenario, Bush would lose Ohio, lose New Hampshire AND lose 4 of Colorado's EV's if they vote to water down their own votes. With Bush taking Wisconsin, that would mean a net loss of 18 EV's, leaving Bush at 260. If this were the case, he would likely have to take Iowa and New Mexico (which is definitely possible). This is all assuming that Kerry holds onto Pennsylvania, Michigan, Oregon, Minnesota and even New Jersey. A loss of any of these states means Kerry loses the election.

So, as the election nears, the battleground states have shrunk - with Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and New Mexico probably deciding the race.