Why the Talking Heads Are Wrong

I don't know about you guys, but I was very pleased with last night. Despite the pundits' consensus that Kerry beat Bush, or as Dick Morris said - Bush won on substance, Kerry won on style - there is no way that last night is going to swing the electorate into his favor. Here's why:

Bush accomplished the most important objectives of the night. A brief recap from the top of my head:
- Kerry had no answer for how he would lead troops and gain an international consensus when he calls the war the "wrong war at the wrong place and the wrong time." He framed the issue perfectly, and I thought it was very effective.
- Kerry indicated that any preemptive action would have to satisfy a "global test." Americans will reject this kind of thinking every time, and Bush seized on it and highlighted the differences between the two.
- Kerry indicated that he would give Iran nuclear fuel and try and sanction them. Again, his dovishness was revealed dramatically and Bush capitalized.
- Kerry indicated that it was absurd to develop bunker-busting nukes. Why? Because of his fundamental mistrust of American power. Tactically, these weapons are necessary. If Iran has nukes buried under a 1/4 mile of concrete, shouldn't we at least have the option? Again, the American public will never choose a candidate that is so unsure of America's fundamental goodness.
- This debate has taken the campaign to a new level. But the new level merely crystallized their differences on foreign policy in a national security election where Bush enjoys a commanding edge.

The pundits are saying that Bush was tired and he slouched or smirked or whatever. Fine. However, the importance of this election is well known and really cannot be overstated. Initial reports indicate that 55 million viewers tuned in last night (like 15% more than 2000). The positions are now more clear and Bush's positions are more accepted. I am very pleased.

Also, the North Korea issue will definitely get some play in the next couple of weeks. Again, Bush's position is the winner. Chinese leverage is absolutely crucial, and once this gets played out, it's another Bush strength.

Look, did Kerry do a good job of making his case? Sure, but he merely shored up the 45% that he was already going to get. Bush will win on his idea of American power and the necessity of the war.