8 Days Until the Official Extinction of the Liberal Movement

Well folks, I still don't have internet access at home - long, pathetic story. So I apologize for the light blogging. Okay...where were we?

Oh yeah - after Taft organized the Conservative movement and become one of the most effective Senate majority leaders in history, Goldwater - through defeat - continued the conservative tradition by appealing to a new generation of conservative thinkers though grassroots efforts. Among those who Goldwater inspired was one Ronald Reagan, who, through conservative and libertarian policies, rescued our country from Jimmy Carter and the Soviet Union, set us on a course for nearly inconceivable economic expansion that lasts to this day, and basically saved all of humanity as we know it.

Reagan was the nemesis of the post-Vietnam democrat. Reagan started his career as a Democrat, and campaigned heavily for the likes of Truman and even Stevenson. But, as he described, he didn't leave the party, the party left him.

Reagan stepped into the oval office and drastically changed our foreign policy. Instead of detente and containment, he brazenly declared that we would beat the "evil empire." Of course, the sent the left into hysterics. What a stubborn, ignorant, stupid, uncultured cowboy. How could he say that they were the "evil empire"? We are losing respect around the world for christ's sake! The French are not letting us use their airspace to go to Libya. Most Europeans are protesting our movement of Pershing missiles. We are now less safe than we were before because we are in fact escalating the tensions! We should just learn to peacefully coexist with the communists. Who are we to impose democracy on other countries? We need to rejoin the world community and unilaterally disarm. Our Central American policies are arrogant, unilateral and illegal.

A New York city professor once famously said, "I don't know how Reagan won, everybody I know voted for Mondale." Sigh...

After conservative policies won the cold war without firing a shot, the dems now say that "foreign policy was easy during the cold war - we had a common enemy." Sigh...

Anyhoot, after Newt conducted one of the most decisive and important elections in our history, where conservatives threw liberals on the street by running on the contract with america, conservatives were able to accomplish many objectives (inlcuding welfare reform and balancing the budget - both of which Clinton initially objected to, and both of which he now takes credit for). Conservative ideas have resulted in what Clinton referred to as "the end of big government" including Supreme Court decisions that finally put a limit on congressional authority by reducing the scope of the commerce clause.

Now, after the vacation from world history we now know as "the 90's" has come and gone, we face a new enemy. We face a new, totalitarian, dictatorial enemy that seeks our annihilation. We cannot peacefully coexist with those that want to kill us - we can't render them a nuisance. This war is not about one man or even one organization. It is about Islamic terrorism.

Bush is going to win folks. All I know about America tells me he will. Recent polls indicate that momentum is swinging in his direction. The last break of the undecideds will not go to someone that has no coherent position on the war that he will be leading. They will not change horses to one that they don't know. We are at war. Thanfully, the American public understands the stakes much better than the libs or their European brethren.

Recent polls show Bush ahead in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and New Mexico - all Blue states. Also, recent polls indicate that such states as Michigan and even Hawaii (both blues) are not sure bets for Kerry and may still be in play. Also, rumors on the internet say that in the next day or so, Bush will be up in more Blue states - including Connecticut.

For Bush to lose, everything has to break Kerry's way. That is why he is trading at 62 cents and 64 cents in the Iowa markets and Tradesports, respectively.

His average head-to-head lead is just under 4 points nationally. Movement is definitely in his direction - and it will continue to do so in my opinion. This is because the great liberal myth that undecideds break in the challenger's favor is just that, a myth.

In 2000, Gore surged in the final week - dramatically as a matter of fact. Buyoed by Bush's flawed strategy of playing the nice guy and the DUI "October surprise" (which played a significant role in the terrible christian turnout), Gore - the "incumbant" if there was one - surged 6-8 points in the last week. In 1996, Clinton surged in the final weeks in an economy that was worse than this one. In 1992, Bush Sr. surged in the final weeks dramatically by labeling Clinton a liberal - only it was too little to late. In 1988, Dukakis was in the game until the final weeks, where Bush's attacks on Dukakis being liberal were successful. In 1984, same thing. Indeed, the only time when the undecideds broke significantly for the challenger was in 1980 - when people realized that Reagan was up to the task, and was sick of the Carter debacle.

So, we know that Bush is up by about 4 point nationally. We also know that if he just holds on to the Red states, he will win 278 EV's. We also know that because there are so few undecideds, that even if most of them break for the wavering challenger in the middle of a war, Bush will still win the popular vote.

Thus, Kerry needs everything to go his way next Tuesdsay. He needs to take Ohio for starters. Speaking of Ohio, the real clear politics average still shows Bush ahead there. And this is of course after Kerry has practically lived there, while Bush just this weekend broke his streak of 20 straight days without an Ohio visit. He's been picking away at the Blue states while Kerry has, at best, gotten into a statistical tie with the Prez in Ohio. The Bush machine will now hit Ohio hard this last week - capped off by heavy stumping by the most popular politician - the Governator - during the final weekend. Oh and by the way, even if our much bally-hooed get out the vote campaign still falls short of the dems, it will nonetheless greatly outperform the 2000 effort - where Bush won Ohio. Additionally, the gay marriage amendment is on the Ohio ballot - which is good news for Dubya. We own Ohio folks.

Even if Bush loses Ohio and New Hampshire (24 Ev's combined), the Prez can still win (Kerry of course has to - has to - win Ohio). With these losses, Bush would stand at 254 EVs. All he needs to do is pick up 15 more. He is currently winning Wisonsin (10), Iowa (7), Minnesota (10) and New Mexico (5) (all Blue states). He also has a real shot at picking up one of Maine's EV's. Indeed, the recent Hawaii polls indicate that its 4 EV's are up for grabs.

Another must-win Kerry state, that everybody thought would be locked up, is Michigan. Read this article for a good analyis of why Bush can win there. VLWC mocks the emphasis Bush made on Kerry's neglection of Poland. Silly VLWC. There are many Polish-Catholics in Michigan. Indeed, these Polish-Catholics are where the term "Reagan democrat" originated. They are socially conservative, and have rejected Massachussets liberals in the past. They don't take kindly to the arrogant dismissal of Poland's importance. Also, they are regular Americans. They are regular Americans that love their Wolverines, and don't take kindly to Kerry singing the Buckeyes' praises on their turf. That is why the Detroit News poll and the Mason Dixon poll show that Bush has a chance to steal this state.

Additionally, the next couple of days will reveal more erosions of Kerry's support in blue states. Further, Bush's job approval rating is now over 50% - a good sign for an incumbant, especially during a time of war.

The way I see it is this - Bush is going to win the popular vote by around 4 pts. It is very unlikely that he can win by this margin and still lose the electoral college. There are going to be some surprises in states that everybody thought Kerry would win.

Kerry now must win Ohio and New Hampshire, and he must hold at least two of Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico and Minnesota. Additionally, he has to protect Michigan and Hawaii, and any other Blue state that I think will become a "toss-up" in the next few days.

If Bush wins Florida (Nader on ballot) and Ohio - we can all go to sleep early on the 2nd. Even if he only wins one of the two, he can still win.

I think the electorate is thoroughly exhausted from this election. That's why I don't think there will be much movement the rest of the way. It's going to come down to voter turnout - which will certainly be better for the reps than it was in 2000. Bush has the structural advantage - both electorally, and popularly.

UPDATE: The Moderate has informed me that the story about the NYC professor saying that she didn't know anybody that voted for Mondale was incorrect. The real story is that an NYC writer in 1972 said that she didn't know anybody that voted for McGovern.